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A THEORETICAL STUDY HAS BEEN CARRIED OUT TO SEE WHAT THE EFFECT WOULD BE OF VARYING THE SIZE OF BUSES IN THE CENTRAL LONDON BUS FLEET AND WHAT EFFECT THE DEGREE OF PRIVATE CAR RESTRAINT WOULD HAVE ON THE OPTIMUM BUS SIZE AND ON OVERALL TRAVEL COSTS IN THE AREA. FOR EACH SIZE OF BUS CONSIDERED THE OVERALL TRAVEL TIMES FOR CARS, BUSES, GOODS VEHICLES AND TAXIS WERE CALCULATED AND COSTED. TO THESE WERE ADDED THE OPERATING COSTS OF ALL VEHICLES ON THE NETWORK. THIS PROCEDURE WAS CARRIED OUT FOR EACH SIZE OF BUS IN TURN AND THE WHOLE PROCESS REPEATED FOR EACH LEVEL OF PRIVATE CAR RESTRAINT CONSIDERED, RANGING FROM PRESENT CONDITIONS UP TO FULL RESTRAINT WHERE NO CARS ARE LEFT ON THE NETWORK. CONSIDERING, INITIALLY, TIME AND OPERATING COSTS ONLY, AN OPTIMUM BUS SIZE FOR PRESENT CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL LONDON WAS FOUND TO BE A 55-SEATER DOUBLE-DECK BUS AND FOR CONDITIONS OF COMPLETE RESTRAINT OF PRIVATE CAR TRAFFIC, A 40-SEATER BUS. IN THESE CALCULATIONS (WHERE TIME AND OPERATING COSTS ONLY ARE CONSIDERED) THE GREATEST COMMUNITY SAVINGS OCCUR UNDER FULL RESTRAINT. HOWEVER, IF ESTIMATES OF SUBJECTIVE COSTS WHICH DRIVERS BEAR ON TRANSFERRING TO BUS TRAVEL BECAUSE OF LOSS OF PRIVACY, CONVENIENCE AND COMFORT, ETC., ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE CALCULATIONS, A LEVEL OF RESTRAINT AT RATHER LESS THAN HALF OF ALL PRIVATE CARS IS FOUND TO GIVE THE GREATEST COMMUNITY SAVINGS, AND AT THIS LEVEL OF RESTRAINT THE OPTIMUM BUS SIZE IS AGAIN A 40-SEATER.
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