The Spatial Optimization of Emergency Shelters Based on an Urban-Scale Evacuation Simulation

Abstract

As an important space for disaster prevention, the construction of emergency shelters is crucial for the creation of a complete disaster relief facility network. Based on the goal of the prevention of day and night disaster, short-term fixed shelters are taken as the study object of the present work, and models are designed for evacuation simulation and the spatial optimization of shelters. According to the simulation, 680 of the 2334 demand points were found to be incompletely evacuated, and the average time for everyone to be evacuated was 10.3 min. Moreover, of the 888 short-term fixed shelters, only 218 did not reach their maximum capacity. In the context of short-term fixed sheltering, Haizhu was found to have the largest number of non-evacuated people (1.11 million), and the average number of non-evacuated people in Yuexiu was the largest (2184). According to the spatial optimization data of the shelters, the numbers of target plots for new shelter resources that must be added in Haizhu, Yuexiu, Liwa, and Tianhe are 406, 164, 141, and 136, respectively, the effective shelter areas of which are 2,621,100, 2,175,300, 812,100, and 1,344,600 m2, respectively. A total of 487 short-term fixed shelters and 360 temporary shelters were newly added, and the recommended scales for Haizhu, Liwan, Tianhe, and Yuexiu were 243, 70, 58, and 116, respectively, with average effective areas of 6169 m2, 5577 m2, 8707 m2, and 12,931 m2, respectively. Additionally, the recommended scales of newly added temporary shelters in Haizhu, Liwan, Tianhe, and Yuexiu are 163, 71, 78, and 48, with an average effective area of 2706, 2581, 4017, and 6234 m2, respectively. These findings provide a direct quantitative basis for the spatial optimization of various types of emergency shelters, and the method proposed in this paper supports the planning and layout of emergency shelters, as well as the improvement of the efficiency of urban resource allocation.

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