A study on the impact of extreme weather events on the ceramic manufacturing in Egypt

Abstract

Nowadays, global economic production is organized around a complex system of highly interdependent supply chains that are currently enormously disrupted due to COVID 19. What would happen if a fast-growing risk could pose a more significant threat to our supply chains? Are our supply chains resilient to climate change? Even though governments, businesses, and climate change organizations in developed countries are forced to work together trying to mitigate and adapt to this fast-moving phenomenon, developing countries like Egypt are less concerned about this topic. This study has developed a system dynamic model based on a four-phase mixed methodology approach; we captured the complex interconnected interactions between supply chain performance and climate change physical risks. A cognitive map was first developed to capture the relationship between the climate change physical risks variables and the supply chains. Then, historical climate data and data from a ceramic manufacturing company were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). A case study of a ceramic manufacturing company located in Egypt is provided to show the applicability of our developed system dynamic model. Lastly, we simulated different scenarios to assess the ramifications and consequences of climate change extreme weather-related events on the manufacturing process of the selected case company. We have observed a negative impact; a decrease in the manufacturing inventory level and production rate, total received orders and sales. As far as our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the impacts of climate change extreme weather events on supply chains located in Egypt. Our main contribution is to prove and establish awareness among business owners, organizations, decision-makers and the Egyptian government that climate change and related extreme weather events exist and disruptions due to this fast-moving phenomenon must be considered.

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