Efficiency and Long-Range Correlation in G-20 Stock Indexes: A Sliding Windows Approach

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze whether the financial crises of the past 20 years have reduced efficiency, in its weak form, in 19 stock markets belonging to the 20 most developed economies (G-20). The sample period comprises the period from 2 January 2000 to 5 February 2021 with the respective financial crises, namely, Dot-com, Argentina, Subprime, Sovereign debt, China stock market crash (2015–2016), UK’s withdrawal from the European Union and the global pandemic of 2020. The results highlight that most markets show signs of (in)efficiency in each sliding window (1000 days), that is, they show asymmetries and non-Gaussian distributions, and [Formula: see text]. These findings suggest that the random walk hypothesis is rejected in certain markets, which has implications for investors, since some returns may be expected, creating arbitrage and abnormal profit opportunities, contrary to the random walk and informational efficiency hypotheses. The results found also open room for market regulators to take steps to ensure better informational data across international financial markets.

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