Have Paved Trails and Protected Bike Lanes Led to More Bicycling in Atlanta?: A Generalized Synthetic-Control Analysis

Michael D. Garber · W. Dana Flanders · Kari Edison Watkins · Felipe Lobelo · Michael R. Kramer · Lauren E. McCullough

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Urban Transport and Accessibility Traffic and Road Safety Urban Green Space and Health

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Bicycling is an important form of physical activity in populations. Research assessing the effect of infrastructure on bicycling with high-resolution smartphone data is emerging in several places, but it remains limited in low-bicycling US settings, including the Southeastern US. The Atlanta area has been expanding its bicycle infrastructure, including off-street paved trails such as the Atlanta BeltLine and some protected bike lanes. METHODS: Using the generalized synthetic-control method, we estimated effects of five groups of off-street paved trails and protected bike lanes on bicycle ridership in their corresponding areas. To measure bicycling, we used 2 years (October 1, 2016 to September 30, 2018) of monthly Strava data in Atlanta's urban core along with data from 15 on-the-ground counters to adjust for spatiotemporal variation in app use. RESULTS: Considering all infrastructure as one joint intervention, an estimated 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99, 1.18) times more bicycle-distance was ridden than would have been expected in the same areas had the infrastructure not been built, when defining treatment areas by the narrower of two definitions (defined in text). The Atlanta BeltLine Westside Trail and Proctor Creek Greenway had especially strong effect estimates, e.g., ratios of 1.45 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.86) and 1.55 (1.10, 2.14) under each treatment-area definition, respectively. We estimated that other infrastructure had weaker positive or no effects on bicycle-distance ridden. CONCLUSIONS: This study advances research on the topic because of its setting in the US Southeast, simultaneous assessment of several infrastructure groups, and data-driven approach to estimating effects. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B936.

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References

2010Motivators and deterrents of bicycling: comparing influences on decisions to ride 2015Cycling as a Part of Daily Life: A Review of Health Perspectives 2017Sustainable for whom? Green urban development, environmental gentrification, and the Atlanta Beltline 2010How Far Out of the Way Will We Travel?2010Urban Trails and Physical Activity 2005Evaluating change in physical activity with the building of a multi-use trail 2018The effect of infrastructural changes in the built environment on physical activity, active transportation and sedentary behavior – A systematic review 2020Strava Metro data for bicycle monitoring: a literature review

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2023Association between passively collected walking and bicycling data and purposefully collected active commuting survey data—United States, 2019 2023Bicycle infrastructure and the incidence rate of crashes with cars: A case-control study with Strava data in Atlanta 2024What interventions increase active travel?2025The link between low-stress bicycle facilities and bicycle commuting

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