A simple cognitive method improving prediction for matters of taste: exploiting the wisdom-of-crowd effect within-person

Abstract

Abstract We often need to predict how much others will be satisfied with something they have not experienced thus far. In such a situation, how can we accurately predict it? Previous studies have indicated that by referring to the extent to which people themselves have enjoyed something, they could predict others’ future satisfaction to some extent. In this study, we proposed a method that can further improve such predictions. This method is expected to allow the participants to exploit the Wisdom of crowd within a person for a matter of taste. Specifically, for a single target, the participants produced two opinions from different perspectives: the degree to which they preferred something and the estimated ‘public opinion’. Through two behavioural studies and computer simulations, we confirmed the effectiveness of our method; specifically, blending the two opinions could enhance individual’s predictions. Subsequently, we mathematically analysed how our method worked and identified several factors that influenced our method’s efficiency. Several contributions of the wisdom-of-crowd research were discussed.

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