Spurious Break

Abstract

A quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the break date is analyzed. Consistency of the estimator is demonstrated under very general conditions, provided that the data-generating process is not integrated. However, the asymptotic distribution of the estimator is quite different for time series that are integrated of order one. In that case, when there is no break, the analyst can be spuriously led to the estimation of a break near the middle of the time series.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 62 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.