Estimating series of vital rates and age structures from baptisms and burials: A new technique, with applications to pre-industrial England

Abstract

This paper presents a technique for deriving demographic information from long aggregate time series of baptisms and burials. Specifically, this technique provides quinquennial estimates of population size, age structure, life expectancy and gross reproduction rates. It assumes that age-specific fertility and mortality schedules belong to one-parameter families, and that the effects of net migration and under-registration cancel. It complements reconstitution analysis by providing temporal detail, and by testing the consistency of estimated vital rates with the aggregate series. It is preferable to stable population analysis for many historical applications since it does not assume stability. The method is applied to Colyton data, 1545 to 1834, confirming Wrigley's results and adding some new detail. The method is also applied to Brownlee's version of Rickman's data for England, 1701 to 1840.

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