In this Chapter, Jorge Hardoy and David Satterthwaite provide a detailed analysis of the data concerning urbanization and urban growth in the Third World. They begin by discussing the accuracy of urban statistics and show that there is a lack of reliable, contemporary or comparable data on which to make accurate forecasts to the end of the century, let alone beyond. They then identify some general trends in Latin America, Asia, and Africa which suggest that the growth of metropolitan centres is actually decreasing in many cases relative to some secondary cities. On this basis, forecasts of mega-city populations appear highly questionable and indicate a need for studies which take into account the economic, social, physical, and political forces which condition it in each case, and limit projections to shorter time-frames where the degree of reliability – and hence the practical value – is greater. The central message of the chapter is that future cities in the Third World are unlikely to resemble those currently forecast and that new approaches will be needed to assess trends and develop more appropriate forms of urban management . The authors have researched and published widely on urbanization and development. They are Director and Researcher respectively with the Human Settlement Programme of the International Institute for Environment and Development. Dr Hardy is also President of IIED-America Latina, based in Buenos Aires .
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