Uncertainty

Abstract

This article deals with individual decision making under uncertainty (unknown probabilities). Risk (known probabilities) is not treated as a separate case, but as a sub-case of uncertainty. Many results from risk naturally extend to uncertainty. The Allais paradox, commonly applied to risk, also reveals empirical deficiencies of expected utility for uncertainty. The Ellsberg paradox reveals deviations from expected utility in a relative, not an absolute, sense, giving within-person comparisons: for some events (ambiguous or otherwise) subjects deviate more from expected utility than for other events. Besides aversion, many other attitudes towards ambiguity are empirically relevant.

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