Reportgold2004

Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Statistical Methods in Epidemiology demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Abstract

This Population Council working paper has two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates, and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness-of-fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicates that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method based on the shifting mortality model is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.

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References

1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 2013World Population Prospects 2000A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries 2001Evaluating the Performance of the Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality 2002Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline 1978Applied Mathematical Demography.2000The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications 1994Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages: Several Decades of Evidence from 27 Countries

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