Selecting input models

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Simulation Techniques and Applications Simulation and Modeling Applications Petri Nets in System Modeling

Abstract

Discrete-event simulation almost invariably makes uses of random quantities drawn from given probability distributions to model chance fluctuations. This paper discusses how to choose appropriate distributions. The two main points addressed are (a) the factors which should be considered in selecting input distributions, and (b) how the effect of errors in making an inappropriate or inexact choice will influence the accuracy of final simulation results.

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1983Simulation Modeling and Analysis.1987Stochastic Simulation 1983A Guide to Simulation 1990Simulation Methodology for Statisticians, Operations Analysts, and Engineers

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2003Input model uncertainty: Why do we care and what should we do about it?1999Steps to implement Bayesian input distribution selection 2004Input model uncertainty: why do we care and what should we do about it?1995Bootstrap methods in computer simulation experiments 2004A kernel approach to estimating the density of a conditional expectation 2010A framework for input uncertainty analysis 2008Reliable simulation with input uncertainties using an interval-based approach 2012Input uncertainty in outout analysis

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