Preprint2017

Extending the Frequency vs. Probability Debate to Bespoke Categories Based on Simple Geometric Figures

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Categorization, perception, and language Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference

Abstract

A previous paper (Mirza & Blumberg, 2017) confirmed that not only did conjunction fallacies occurred with the "Linda Problem" in probabilistic but not frequentist form, but also that it occurred in both modes with a vignette based on racial stereotypes. The present study (N = 113) uses bespoke categories based on objects and shapes yielded parallel findings. Apparently humans are "good intuitive statisticians" only under certain circumstances which do not necessarily even include stimuli formed from quite basic cognitive processes.A previous paper (Mirza & Blumberg, 2017) confirmed that not only did conjunction fallacies occurred with the "Linda Problem" in probabilistic but not frequentist form, but also that it occurred in both modes with a vignette based on racial stereotypes. The present study (N = 113) uses bespoke categories based on objects and shapes yielded parallel findings. Apparently humans are "good intuitive statisticians" only under certain circumstances which do not necessarily even include stimuli formed from quite basic cognitive processes.

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