Articlediamond2019

Ways of People’s Estimating Uncertain Quantitative Factors for Decision-Making in Economy and Business

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Forecasting Techniques and Applications Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies

Abstract

Decisions taken by a subject in economy and business are based on preliminary estimation of the uncertain factors.Along with this, there is still no unambiguous answer to the question about what methods subjects resort to when estimating the uncertain quantitative factors.This question is extremely topical for mathematical modeling of making the best decisions in economy, finance, business processes, and social structures under the conditions of uncertainty.This work is dedicated to research into the methods using which a subject estimates the uncertain quantitative factors.The researches have shown that the subjective estimation of the quantitative uncertain factors is an interval one, and the actual values of an estimated factor are equally distributed within the estimate interval.At the same time, the point estimations are used rather rarely and are not adequate to the subject's psychology of estimation.

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