Will Brexit harm UK and global wine markets?

Abstract

POINTS• For wine markets, the impact of the UK leaving the Customs Union is likely to come not only from tariff changes but also from slowed growth of UK incomes and devaluation of the pound.• Even if the UK were to sign new trade agreements with the EU27 and others, the time it would take to implement them and for markets to adjust ensures that the likely effects of Brexit on wine markets will be adverse over the next few years.• In the main scenario considered, for consumers in the UK the price of wine in 2025 is 22% higher in local currency terms than it would be without Brexit, the volume of UK wine consumption is 28% lower, and the value of UK imports is 27% lower because of Brexit.• Such a sales reduction in the UK would be a blow to participants in UK wine bottling, transporting, storing, wholesaling and retailing businesses, as well as restaurants and pubs.• Because the UK is a key player in global wine trade, accounting for a major share of the world's wine imports, Brexit will also affect wine-exporting countries, with few if any gaining in the main scenario considered over the modelled projection period to 2025.

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