Intuitive Judgments of Social Statistics: How Exhaustive Does Sampling Need to Be?

Thorsten Pachur, Ralph Hertwig, Jörg Rieskamp

2013-01-01datasetPsycEXTRA Dataset2 citationsclosed

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Categorization, perception, and language Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

Abstract

We examine the role of noncompensatory processing in instance-based inference.• We propose a heuristic for judging the relative frequency of events.• The heuristic performs competitively in describing people's frequency judgments.• In computer simulations we examine the ecological rationality of the heuristic.• The heuristic performs competitively in clustered and skewed environments.

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