Mozambique—Bust before Boom

Abstract

Abstract This chapter is a sequel to an earlier study that looked in broad terms at many of the issues that Mozambique faces in managing its new extractive resources. The chapter first describes the investment surge prompted by new gas discoveries, then summarizes some recent literature that examines the effects of such resource surges in other countries. It next examines aspects of the disappointing economic outcomes seen through 2018, and analyses some of the implications of these outcomes for future policy. The chapter concludes by exploring the epidemiology of a large public investment surge. In following this sequence of argument, the chapter also throws light on a number of critical general policy questions—such as the route to economic diversification and the need for both institutional change and improved policy co-ordination—that arise in the context of a major new resource discovery.

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