An experimental study of some stochastic models for wagers

Abstract

When faced with a choice between two objects, a person may at times choose one of them and a t other times, the other. Thus there is no straightforward way of telling which object he prefers. However, we may be able to get a glimpse of his preferences by comparing the frequencies with which he prefers each of the objects on various occasions. A stochastic utility model is a postulated stochastic process, supposedly taking place inside the subject, which determines the probabilities with which the subject will choose given objects from given offered sets of objects. The model is “appropriate” for a given subject if his utility function can be inferred from the observed frequencies with which he chooses the various objects. In this paper two essentially different stochastic models are experimentally tested for their appropriateness to members of a population sample.

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