Optimizing diesel fuel supply chain operations to mitigate power outages for hurricane relief

Abstract

Hurricanes can cause severe property damage and casualties in coastal regions. Diesel fuel plays a crucial role in hurricane disaster relief. It is important to optimize fuel supply chain operations so that emergency diesel fuel demand for power generation in a hurricane’s immediate aftermath can be mitigated. It can be challenging to estimate diesel fuel demand and make informed decisions in the distribution process, accounting for the hurricane’s path and severity. We develop predictive and prescriptive models to guide diesel fuel supply chain operations for hurricane disaster relief. We estimate diesel fuel demand from historical weather forecasts and power outage data. This predictive model feeds a prescriptive stochastic programming model implemented in a rolling-horizon fashion to dispatch tank trucks. This data-driven optimization tool provides a framework for decision support in preparation for approaching hurricanes, and our numerical results provide insights regarding key aspects of operations.

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