A model-based opinion dynamics approach to tackle vaccine hesitancy

Abstract

Uncovering the mechanisms underlying the diffusion of vaccine hesitancy is crucial in fighting epidemic spreading. Toward this ambitious goal, we treat vaccine hesitancy as an opinion, whose diffusion in a social group can be shaped over time by the influence of personal beliefs, social pressure, and other exogenous actions, such as pro-vaccine campaigns. We propose a simple mathematical model that, calibrated on survey data, can predict the modification of the pre-existing individual willingness to be vaccinated and estimate the fraction of a population that is expected to adhere to an immunization program. This work paves the way for enabling tools from network control towards the simulation of different intervention plans and the design of more effective targeted pro-vaccine campaigns. Compared to traditional mass media alternatives, these model-based campaigns can exploit the structural properties of social networks to provide a potentially pivotal advantage in epidemic mitigation.

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