Design of Machine Learning Algorithm for Tourism Demand Prediction

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43 citations0/0 files storedComputational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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Abstract

Unused hotel rooms, unused event tickets, and unsold items are all examples of wasted expenses and earnings. Governments require accurate tourism demand forecasting in order to make informed decisions on topics such as infrastructure development and lodging site planning; therefore, accurate tourism demand forecasting becomes vital. Artificial intelligence (AI) models such as neural networks and security violation report (SVR) have been used effectively in tourist demand forecasting as a result of the fast advancement of AI. This paper constructs a tourism demand forecasting model based on machine learning on the basis of the existing forecasting model research. The completed work is as follows: (1) It introduces a large number of domestic and foreign literatures on tourism volume forecasting and proposes the research content of this paper. (2) It is proposed to stack the long short-term memory- (LSTM-) based autoencoders deeply, by adopting a hierarchical greedy pretraining method to replace the random weight initialization method used in the deep network and combining this pretraining stage and fine-tuning network together to form the SAE-LSTM prediction model for improving the performance of deep learning models. (3) This paper uses the monthly search engine strength data of city A's monthly tourist volume and its related influencing factors as the data set; processes the data set to make the model adapt to the data input; uses mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), MAPE, and other model evaluation indicators; and uses LSTM and the constructed SAE-LSTM model to conduct comparative experiments to predict the number of tourist arrivals in four years. The prediction results of the models proposed in this paper are better than those of the LSTM model. According to the experimental results, the superiority of the proposed LSTM-based unsupervised pretraining method is demonstrated.

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References

2007Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research 2005Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting 2019Tourism demand forecasting: A deep learning approach 2014Forecasting Chinese tourist volume with search engine data 2000Back-propagation learning in improving the accuracy of neural network-based tourism demand forecasting 2005Designing an artificial neural network for forecasting tourism time series 2006Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Time Varying Parameter Error Correction Model 2020Daily tourism volume forecasting for tourist attractions

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