Agricultural Price Prediction Based on Combined Forecasting Model under Spatial-Temporal Influencing Factors

Abstract

Grain product price fluctuations affect the input of production factors and impact national food security. Under the influence of complex factors, such as spatial-temporal influencing factors, price correlation, and market diversity, it is increasingly important to improve the accuracy of grain product price prediction for agricultural sustainable development. Therefore, successful prediction of the agricultural product plays a vital role in the government’s market regulation and the stability of national food security. In this paper, the price of corn in Sichuan Province is taken as an example. Firstly, the apriori algorithm was used to search for the spatial-temporal influencing factors of price changes. Secondly, the Attention Mechanism Algorithm, Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Back Propagation (BP) Neural Network models were combined into the AttLSTM-ARIMA-BP model to predict the accurate price. Compared with the other seven models, the AttLSTM-ARIMA-BP model achieves the best prediction effect and possesses the strongest robustness, which improves the accuracy of price forecasting in complex environments and makes the application to other fields possible.

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