Global risk assessment for development processes: from framework to simulation

Abstract

The dynamic and complex nature of development processes calls for improvements in risk management methods. To deal with the risks, the authors advocate for a paradigm shift. The focus is moving from individual risk to risk interactions. Standards suggest integrating methods to address the limitations imposed by existing approaches. As a result, new strategies are needed to express and assess risk connections. The paper proposes a global framework and its simulator for: (a) representing individual risk events and including them in a product development, (b) expressing risk interactions, (c) integrating risks hierarchically and (d) evaluating risks. The solution is based on distinction between individual risk events and global process and its risk behaviour. Risk behaviour is characterised on task level. Process behaviour enables the integration of task risk into the development process. Risk management is viewed as a part of the development process, with final risk assessed bottom-up from individual risk to process risk. Consequently, the main contribution is not only in taking risk interactions into account but also in contextualising risk assessment in relation to development processes. Simulation is conducted for hair dryer design. However, the solution is global and can be used for other manufacturing and development processes.

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