Measuring and assessing the effects of climate policy uncertainty

Abstract

This study proposes a new indicator of Climate Policy Uncertainty based on newspaper coverage frequency. The indicator currently includes 12 OECD Member Countries and covers the period 1990-2018. The index spikes near major political events and during major discussions around potentially significant climate policy changes. Using a global firm-level dataset, the empirical analysis shows that Climate Policy Uncertainty is associated with economically and statistically significant decreases in investment, particularly in pollution-intensive sectors that are most exposed to climate policies, and among capital-intensive companies. In addition to annual series, the study also provides the indicator at higher frequencies of monthly and quarterly levels, and develops sub-indices that capture the direction of climate policy uncertainty associated with a strengthening or a weakening of climate policies for a sub-set of countries.

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