Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on World Trade Networks and Exposure to Shocks: A Cross-Country Examination

Abstract

This study uses trade network analysis and forward shock propagation models to analyze the structure and positioning of international trade networks and their exposure to shocks before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We include aggregate and sector-wise merchandise exports for the top 20 countries. The results reveal no discernible changes in the overall trade connectivity and intensity. Consumer goods, food and beverages, and industrial supplies indicate a high trade density. However, capital goods, fuels, and lubricants indicate a massive decline. Accordingly, countries should initiate and coordinate timely sector-wise policies to achieve resilience to shocks. Better trade facilitation measures and reduction in trade restrictions are essential.

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