Article1981

The Mechanisms of Demographic Change in Historical Perspective

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Historical Economic and Social Studies Historical Studies on Reproduction, Gender, Health, and Societal Changes

Abstract

The ‘wealth flows theory’ of fertility transition is applied here to historical population change and several problems are identified and explained. Two distinct values of children are discussed: as a source of strength for protection, and as a source of wealth gained from a situational advantage in families where there is segmentation by age, sex, marital status and relationships in work inputs and consumption. It is argued that the balance between the values derived from these two sources changes over time. Much of traditional culture is concerned with maintaining the situational advantage. The transformation of the cultural superstructure and of the value of children is examined during a transition from a system of familial production to one where much work is allocated by an external labour market. Late marriage of women in Europe before the later decades of the nineteenth century is discussed, and the conclusion is reached that this had little to do with the desire to control the ultimate size of the family. It is argued that slow declines in fertility before the major transition may arise from changes in the locus of fertility decision-making and in greater importance being given to the dislike by women of too many pregnancies, births and periods with very young children, aversions unrelated to the fear of economic problems arising from the rearing of excessive numbers of children. We also discuss why investment in children is possible when no other form of investment can be undertaken. Finally the contrast between Western family and demographic change with no preexisting models and those found in a situation where a global economy and society are coming into being is examined. It is argued that no explanation of social and economic change is valid which cannot explain the demographic changes of the last hundred years.

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References

1979Education as a Factor in Mortality Decline An Examination of Nigerian Data 1976Toward A Restatement of Demographic Transition Theory 1956Social Structure and Fertility: An Analytic Framework 1980Mass Education as a Determinant of the Timing of Fertility Decline 1972Women and the Family in Rural Taiwan 1972From reproduction to production 1954The Cultural Role of Cities 1978A Theory of Fertility: From High Plateau to Destabilization

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