Impact on Public Transport

Abstract

A consistent pattern that emerged out of the consequences of COVID-19 is that public transport was hit particularly hard compared to private cars and other modes. This raises concern regarding the future of public transport and the sustainability of urban transport. While the current clash of challenges, trends and disruptions makes the future more difficult to forecast than ever, this chapter highlights both long-term and emerging trends that are likely to influence public transport beyond the pandemic. As a foundation for the discussion, the chapter first briefly outlines the state and development of public transport before COVID-19, as well as the immediate effects of the pandemic. Before COVID-19, strong trends included initiatives towards sustainable urban transport, digitalisation and automation, and increasingly personalised services. The pandemic induced lockdowns, restrictions to use public transport and anxiety towards crowding, which influenced people to travel less and shift to other modes. There were clear socioeconomic inequalities in the ability to do so and a loss of accessibility. Many agencies and operators suffered financially as a result of lost fare revenues and limited governmental support. Emerging trends such as less commuting and financial struggles are likely to influence public transport for many years to come. However, the pandemic, and the induced behaviour and exposed problems that have followed, can serve as a call for substantial changes in urban transport planning. A continued development and integration of sustainable mobility services, with public transport as a central actor, is widely seen as key in this ambition.

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