Sooner, later, or never: Changing fertility intentions due to Covid-19 in China’s Covid-19 epicentre

Abstract

Using survey data collected from Hubei province, China's Covid-19 epicentre, in August 2020, this study examines how fertility intentions of Chinese citizens changed during the Covid-19 pandemic. We consider not only whether people changed their fertility plans due to Covid-19 but also distinguish three types of change: bringing forward ('sooner'), postponing ('later'), and abandoning ('never') planned fertility. Over half of those who planned to have a child intended to change their fertility plans due to Covid-19. Younger individuals, those of non-Han ethnicities, urban residents, those with one child already, and those with ever-infected family members were more likely to change their fertility plans. While the effects of some characteristics seem to be short term, other characteristics such as age and number of children show more consequential influences. Older individuals and those planning their second child were particularly prone to abandoning their childbearing plans due to Covid-19. The pandemic may thus complicate China's latest efforts to boost its low fertility.

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