Searching for migration: estimating Japanese migration to Europe with Google Trends data

Abstract

In recent research, Google Trends data has been identified as a potentially useful data source to complement or even replace otherwise traditional data for predicting migration flows. However, the research on this is in its infancy, and as of yet suffers from a distinctive Western bias both in the topics covered as in the applicability of the methods. To examine its wider utility, this paper evaluates the predictive potential of Google Trends data, which captures Google search frequencies, but applies it to the case of Japanese migration flows to Europe. By doing so, we focus on some of the specific challenging aspects of the Japanese language, such as its various writing systems, and of its migration flows, characterized by its relative stability and sometimes limit size. In addition, this research investigates to what extent Google Trends data can be used to empirically test theory in the form of the aspirations and (cap)ability approach. The results show that after careful consideration, this method has the potential to reach satisfactory predictions, but that there are many obstacles to overcome. As such, sufficient care and prior investigation are paramount when attempting this method for less straightforward cases, and additional studies need to address some of the key limitations more in detail to validate or annul some of the findings presented here. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11135-022-01560-0.

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