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What Correlates with Accuracy: The Empirical Epistemology of Optimal Cognition
16 references·0 citing·46 second hop
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References

  • 2005Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making5,253 cited
  • 2002Heuristics and Biases2,214 cited
  • 2013Rationality Through Reasoning1,558 cited
  • 1965THE EXISTENCE OF GOD921 cited
  • 1994How People Respond to Contingent Valuation Questions: A Verbal Protocol Analysis of Willingness to Pay for an Environmental Regulation474 cited
  • 2014Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament323 cited
  • 2015Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions237 cited
  • 2015The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.187 cited
  • 2016Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls175 cited
  • 1993Why Teach Thinking?‐An Essay169 cited
  • 2015Improving metacognition in the classroom through instruction, training, and feedback157 cited
  • 1990Nomic Probability and the Foundations of Induction135 cited
  • 1979Bayesian personalism, the methodology of scientific research programmes, and Duhem's problem125 cited
  • 2016Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition74 cited
  • 2020Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters

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45 cited
  • 2017Accountability and adaptive performance under uncertainty: A long-term view37 cited
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