Research on Passengers’ Preferences and Impact of High-Speed Rail on Air Transport Demand

Asep Yayat Nurhidayat · Hera Widyastuti · Sutikno Sutikno · Dwi Phalita Upahita

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Aviation Industry Analysis and Trends Transportation Planning and Optimization transportation and logistics systems

Abstract

The new high-speed rail (HSR) routes are expected to have a large impact on air transport demand. In some cases, HSR can be a complementary mode to air transport. However, a number of studies have pointed out that HSR can have a negative impact on air transport demand. Various approaches have been used to model mode choice behaviour, such as the discreet choice model, logistic regression and the analytical hierarchy process. OLS and MLE are two methods that are commonly used for parameter estimations. However, these approaches have some limitations. This study aims to understand the travel behaviour, mode choice model, travel variables and the impact of HSR operation on air transport demand through a systematic literature review. This study explores various approaches that are used to model mode choice and identify possible alternative approaches to overcome the limitations of current methods. The key variables that influence mode choice and the impact of HSR operation are elaborated in this study. Several points can be concluded from the analysis of the literature, such as: (1) the operation speed set by HSR should be reliable to enable it to compete with airplane travel time; (2) the model to represent mode choice behaviour should be derived from a suitable analysis method and Bayesian method is one of the alternatives for the parameter estimation; (3) there are various variables that are yet to be included in the current mode choice models, and they can be further explored to better present the needs of the customers; and (4) the impact of HSR operation on airplane travel demand, explained by previous studies, can be used as a reference for the policy maker in implementing transport projects.

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References

2000The future mobility of the world population 2019Impacts of high-speed rail on airlines, airports and regional economies: A survey of recent research 2010High-speed rail and air transport competition: Game engineering as tool for cost-benefit analysis 2016The impact of high-speed rail investment on economic and environmental change in China: A dynamic CGE analysis 2014Competition and cooperation between high-speed rail and air transportation services in Europe 2011Intermodal competition in the London–Paris passenger market: High-Speed Rail and air transport 2011Will China’s airline industry survive the entry of high-speed rail?2012High‐Speed Rail: Lessons for Policy Makers from Experiences Abroad

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