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Metropolitan decline in southern Europe was documented in few cases, being less intensively investigated than in other regions of the continent. Likely for the first time in recent history, the aftermath of the 2007 recession was a time period associated with economic and demographic decline in Mediterranean Europe. However, the impacts and consequences of the great crisis were occasionally verified and quantified, both in strictly urban contexts and in the surrounding rural areas. By exploiting official statistics, our study delineates sequential stages of demographic growth and decline in a large metropolitan region (Athens, Greece) as a response to economic expansion and stagnation. Having important implications for the extent and spatial direction of metropolitan cycles, the Athens’ case—taken as an example of urban cycles in Mediterranean Europe—indicates a possibly new dimension of urban shrinkage, with spatially varying population growth and decline along a geographical gradient of income and wealth. Heterogeneous dynamics led to a leapfrog urban expansion decoupled from agglomeration and scale, the factors most likely shaping long-term metropolitan expansion in advanced economies. Demographic decline in urban contexts was associated with multidimensional socioeconomic processes resulting in spatially complex demographic outcomes that require appropriate, and possibly more specific, regulation policies. By shedding further light on recession-driven metropolitan decline in advanced economies, the present study contributes to re-thinking short-term development mechanisms and medium-term demographic scenarios in Mediterranean Europe.
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