International capital flow pressures and global factors

Abstract

The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate adjustments. The sensitivity of capital flow pressures to risk sentiment evolves over time, varies significantly across countries, and differs between normal times and extreme stress events. Across countries, risk sensitivities and safe haven status are associated with self-fulfilling exchange rate expectations and carry trade funding currencies. In contrast, current indicators of a safe macroeconomic profile are only weakly associated with safe haven status.

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