The effect of the global supply chain and oil prices on the inflation rates in advanced economies and emerging markets

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of global supply chain pressures and crude oil prices on the consumer price index from October 1997 to February 2022 using panel linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDLs, NARDLs). The results showed that the asymmetric effect of the global supply chain on the inflation rate is stronger when the supply chain increases than when it decreases in the long run for advanced economies and vice versa in emerging markets. A one standard deviation of the supply chain pressures has rebounded the inflation rate by about 1.7% and 0.71% for advanced economies and emerging markets, respectively. The findings establish that a 10 U.S. dollar increase in oil prices leads the inflation rate to rise by 0.1%–0.6% for all countries in the short run. However, the impact of the global supply chain index fits much better with the inflation rate than the oil prices in the short and long run, including the subprime crisis, such as the COVID‐19 outbreak, and the beginning of the Russo–Ukrainian conflict. Thus, the empirical results of the current study provide acumens for policymakers of advanced economies and emerging markets to consume green energy and make use of green technology and environmental innovations for counterbalancing the inflation issues induced by the higher rates of oil prices without halting the economic growth and sustainable development.

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