Structure Optimization of Ensemble Learning Methods and Seasonal Decomposition Approaches to Energy Price Forecasting in Latin America: A Case Study about Mexico

Abstract

The energy price influences the interest in investment, which leads to economic development. An estimate of the future energy price can support the planning of industrial expansions and provide information to avoid times of recession. This paper evaluates adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), bootstrap aggregation (bagging), gradient boosting, histogram-based gradient boosting, and random forest ensemble learning models for forecasting energy prices in Latin America, especially in a case study about Mexico. Seasonal decomposition of the time series is used to reduce unrepresentative variations. The Optuna using tree-structured Parzen estimator, optimizes the structure of the ensembles through a voter by combining several ensemble frameworks; thus an optimized hybrid ensemble learning method is proposed. The results show that the proposed method has a higher performance than the state-of-the-art ensemble learning methods, with a mean squared error of 3.37 × 10−9 in the testing phase.

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