Trends in crowd accidents based on an analysis of press reports

Abstract

Crowd accidents have become a frequent occurrence on a global scale. Given the recurring nature of these accidents, it is essential that their characteristics are analyzed. Here, a database of crowd accidents is developed for the period of 1900-2019 through a comprehensive investigation of the media reports. The analyses focus mainly on temporal trends of their frequency and injury/causality in each accident, as well as their geographical distribution and classification based on the purpose of gathering. Results show that the frequency of crowd accidents has been on the rise over the last 120 years. Also, there was no indication that larger crowd sizes increase the risk of injury or death per person. In fact, the opposite was the case, although a causal relation between crowd size and risk of injury/death is impossible to establish. Over time, the share of sport events in crowd accidents has declined, and instead, religious gatherings have become more notably present in the statistics. An interesting observation is the association of accident rates to the income level of the countries where they happen, with low-and-middle-income countries being more represented in the records. Finally, it is argued that the exponential increase in crowd accidents of the last century was only partially real, with technology also playing a role in making information more accessible for recent accidents. After the internet became widespread, the trend for reported crowd accidents does not show an exponential increase although it is difficult to conclude whether their frequency is stable or not.

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