The effects of COVID-19 on downtown land use: Evidence from four U.S. cities

Abstract

This paper investigates trends in downtown real estate and urban responses to real estate demand shifts during the COVID and post-COVID recovery periods for a selection of U.S. downtown areas. It charts the diverging responses of different real estate sectors to the COVID-19 pandemic—and the implications for the spatial allocation of activity across metropolitan areas. Using local data from four major U.S. metro areas, it documents how sustained shifts in rents and vacancy rates are putting pressure on cities to reconsider—and in some cases redefine—the “highest and best use” of much of their downtown real estate assets. After analyzing economic and policy constraints that are hindering responses, it concludes by proposing strategies for how the downtown real estate sector can adapt to the shifting needs of the post-pandemic population.

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