A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System

Abstract

This is the second part of the quantitative framework for the propagation paths of Natech domino effects in chemical industrial parks, which focuses on risk assessment and a mitigation system based on the propagation path probabilities obtained from Part I. In this paper, the risk assessment model for the propagation paths of the domino effects induced by natural disasters are developed, and the risk level is quantitatively analyzed using individual risk and social risk indexes and compared with the risk acceptance standard to determine whether the risk in the plant area is at the risk acceptance level. Furthermore, the chain-cutting disaster mitigation model for domino effects induced by Natech events and the full-life-cycle mitigation system are proposed, and the effectiveness of mitigation measures is also evaluated. The case analysis results show that Natech events and multi-level domino effects can increase the risk to an unacceptable level, and taking corresponding mitigation measures could reduce the risk to an acceptable level.

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