The law of small numbers: When statistics and psychology go to war

Itamar Shatz

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Probability and Statistical Research Misinformation and Its Impacts

Abstract

Abstract Humans have innate biases when it comes to probability, leading to poor decision-making. Itamar Shatz looks at a bias that affects disinformation-spreaders and statisticians alike

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1971Belief in the law of small numbers.2002Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers 2009Inference from Streaks in Random Outcomes: Experimental Evidence on Beliefs in Regime Shifting and the Law of Small Numbers

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