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Forecasts of the real price of oil revisited: Do they beat the random walk?
16 references·1 citing·41 second hop
Forecasts of the real price of oil revisited: Do they beat the random walk? (2023)Forecasts of the real price of oil revisi…Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions (2020)Energy Markets and Global Eco…Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity (2019)Commodity-price comovement an…Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach (2015)Forecasting the Real Price of…Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold–Mariano Tests (2015)Comparing Predictive Accuracy…WHAT CENTRAL BANKERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING OIL PRICES (2014)WHAT CENTRAL BANKERS NEED TO …Forecasting the Price of Oil (2013)Forecasting the Price of OilReal-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil (2012)Real-Time Forecasts of the Re…What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures? (2010)What do we learn from the pri…Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis (1999)Some Consequences of Temporal…Temporal Aggregation and Economic Time Series (1995)Temporal Aggregation and Econ…Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1995)Comparing Predictive AccuracyIndexes of U.S. Stock Prices from 1802 to 1987 (1990)Indexes of U.S. Stock Prices …Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence (1989)Consumption, Income, and Inte…Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies (1983)Empirical exchange rate model…Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series (1978)Seasonal Analysis of Economic…Note on the Correlation of First Differences of Averages in a Random Chain (1960)Note on the Correlation of Fi…A combined model using secondary decomposition for crude oil futures price and volatility forecasting: Analysis based on comparison and ablation experiments (2024)A combined model using second…Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Coherent Measures of Risk (1999)The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far? (2013)Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences (2014)A deep learning ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting (2017)Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics (1976)Macroeconomics and Reality (1980)The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle (1996)Monetary Theory and Policy (1999)Forecasting Economic Time Series (2000)Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange (2003)A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle (1989)Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning (2018)Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility (2018)Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results (1989)Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market (2009)Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories (2013)Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices (2013)Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries (2013)“Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives” (2016)Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us (2016)Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests (1973)Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (1977)Expected stock returns and volatility (1987)Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns (2000)Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective (2011)Market-wide attention, trading, and stock returns (2015)LIFETIME PORTFOLIO SELECTION BY DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING (1975)Econometric policy evaluation: A critique (1976)Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence (1978)An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy (1997)Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns (2001)The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks (2010)Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence (2018)Forecasting crude oil prices with a large set of predictors: Can LASSO select powerful predictors? (2019)Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review (2022)The Interaction Between Time-Nonseparable Preferences and Time Aggregation (1993)A brief history of market efficiency (1998)An Econometric Model of Serial Correlation and Illiquidity in Hedge Fund Returns (2003)Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors (1997)Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions (2017)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1995Comparing Predictive Accuracy5,214 cited
  • 1983Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies4,115 cited
  • 1989Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence1,820 cited
  • 2010What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?744 cited
  • 2015Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold–Mariano Tests494 cited
  • 1960Note on the Correlation of First Differences of Averages in a Random Chain406 cited
  • 2013Forecasting the Price of Oil385 cited
  • 1990Indexes of U.S. Stock Prices from 1802 to 1987356 cited
  • 2012Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil356 cited
  • 2015Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach323 cited
  • 1978Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series288 cited
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  • 2020Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions246 cited
  • 2019Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity201 cited
  • 2014WHAT CENTRAL BANKERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING OIL PRICES167 cited

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1995
Temporal Aggregation and Economic Time Series
156 cited

Cited by

  • 2024A combined model using secondary decomposition for crude oil futures price and volatility forecasting: Analysis based on comparison and ablation experiments37 cited