Optimizing Forecasted Activity Notifications with Reinforcement Learning

Abstract

In this paper, we propose the notification optimization method by providing multiple alternative times as a reminder for a forecasted activity with and without probabilistic considerations for the activity that needs to be completed and needs notification. It is important to consider various factors when sending notifications to people after obtaining the results of the forecasted activity. We should not send notifications only when we have forecasted results because future daily activities are unpredictable. Therefore, it is important to strike a balance between providing useful reminders and avoiding excessive interruptions, especially for low probabilities of forecasted activity. Our study investigates the impact of the low probability of forecasted activity and optimizes the notification time with reinforcement learning. We also show the gaps between forecasted activities that are useful for self-improvement by people for the balance of important tasks, such as tasks completed as planned and additional tasks to be completed. For evaluation, we utilize two datasets: the existing dataset and data we collected in the field with the technology we have developed. In the data collection, we have 23 activities from six participants. To evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches, we assess the percentage of positive responses, user response rate, and response duration as performance criteria. Our proposed method provides a more effective way to optimize notifications. By incorporating the probability level of activity that needs to be done and needs notification into the state, we achieve a better response rate than the baseline, with the advantage of reaching 27.15%, as well as than the other criteria, which are also improved by using probability.

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