Mitigation and Development Pathways in the Near to Mid-term

Abstract

Introduction �� 414 4.2 Accelerating Mitigation Actions Across Scales �� 415 4.2.1 Mitigation Targets and Measures in Nationally Determined Contributions �� 415 4.2.2Aggregate Effects of NDCs and Other Mitigation Efforts Relative to Long-term Mitigation Pathways �� 416 Cross-Chapter Box 4: Comparison of NDCs and current policies with the 2030 GHG Emissions from Long-term Temperature Pathways �� 424 Box 4.1: Adaptation gap and NDCs �� 426 4.2.3Mitigation Efforts in Sub-national and Non-state Action Plans and Policies �� 426 4.2.4Mid-century Low-emission Strategies at the National Level �� 430 Box 4.2: Direct Links Between an Individual Actor's Mitigation Efforts in the Near Term and Global Temperature Goals in the Long Term Cannot be Inferred �� 431 4.2.5 What Is to Be Done to Accelerate Mitigation? �� 435 Box 4.3: Examples of High-renewable Accelerated Mitigation Pathways �� 436 4.2.6 Implications of Accelerated Mitigation for National Development Objectives �� 442 4.2.7 Obstacles to Accelerated Mitigation and How Overcoming Them Amounts to Shifts in Development Pathways �� 446 4.3 Shifting Development Pathways �� 448 4.3.1 Framing of Development Pathways �� 448 4.3.2Implications of Development Pathways for Mitigation and Mitigative Capacity �� 451 Box 4.4: India's National Development Plan �� 452 Box 4.5: South Africa's National Development Plan �� 453 4.3.3Examples of Shifts in Development Pathways and of Supporting Policies �� 455 Cross-Chapter Box 5: Shifting Development Pathways to Increase Sustainability and Broaden Mitigation Options �� 456 4.4 How to Shift Development Pathways and Accelerate the Pace and Scale of Mitigation �� 459 4.4.1 Approaches, Enabling Conditions and Examples �� 459 4.4.2Adaptation, Development Pathways and Mitigation �� 468 4.4.3Risks and Uncertainties �� 471 4.5 Equity, Including Just Transitions �� 472 Box 4.6: Selected Organisations and Movements Supporting a Just Transition �� 474 4.6 Knowledge Gaps �� 476 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) �� 477 FAQ 4.1: What is to be done over and above countries' existing pledges under the Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2°C? �� 477 FAQ 4.2: What is to be done in the near term to accelerate mitigation and shift development pathways?�� 477 FAQ 4.3: Is it possible to accelerate mitigation in the near term while there are so many other development priorities?(Education, health, employment, etc.) �� 477 Mitigation and Development Pathways in the Near to Mid-term Chapter 4 4 Executive Summary This chapter focuses on accelerating mitigation and on shifting development pathways to increased sustainability, based on literature particularly at national scale.While previous WGIII assessments have discussed mitigation pathways, focus on development pathways is more recent.The timeframe is the near term (now up to 2030) to mid-term (2030 to 2050), complementing Chapter 3 on the long term (from 2050 onward).An emissions gap persists, exacerbated by an implementation gap, despite mitigation efforts including those in near-universal nationally determined contributions (NDCs).The 'emissions gap' is understood as the difference between the emissions with NDCs in 2030, and mitigation pathways consistent with the temperature goals.In general, the term 'implementation gap' refers to the difference between goals on paper and how they are achieved in practice.In this report, the term refers to the gap between mitigation pledges contained in national determined contributions, and the expected outcome of existing policies.There is considerable literature on country-level mitigation pathways, including but not limited to NDCs.Country distribution of this literature is very unequal (robust evidence, high agreement).Current policies lead to median global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 57 GtCO 2 -eq with a full range of 52-60 by 2030.NDCs with unconditional and conditional elements 1 lead to 53 (50-57) and 50 (47-55) GtCO 2 -eq, respectively (medium evidence, medium agreement) (Table 4.3).This leaves estimated emissions gaps in 2030 between projected outcomes of unconditional elements of NDCs and emissions in scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot of 19-26 GtCO 2 -eq, and 10-16 GtCO 2 -eq for scenarios that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) with immediate action.When conditional elements of NDCs are included, these gaps narrow to 16-23 GtCO 2 -eq and 6-14 GtCO 2 -eq, respectively.{Cross-Chapter Box 4, Figure 1} Chapter 4 Mitigation and Development Pathways in the Near to Mid-term 4 Shifting development pathways towards sustainability offers ways to (i) broaden the range of levers and enablers that a society can use to provide enabling conditions and accelerate mitigation; and (ii) increase the chances of advancing at the same time towards mitigation and towards other development goals.The way countries develop determines their capacity to accelerate mitigation and achieve other sustainable development objectives simultaneously (medium-robust evidence, medium agreement).Yet meeting ambitious mitigation and development goals cannot be achieved through incremental change, hence the focus on shifting development pathways (robust evidence, medium agreement).Though development pathways result from the actions of a wide range of actors, it is possible to shift development pathways through policies and enhancing enabling conditions (limited evidence, medium agreement).For example, policies such as those listed in Table 4.12 are typically associated with broader objectives than greenhouse gas mitigation.They are generally conceived and implemented in the pursuit of overall societal development objectives, such as job creation, macroeconomic stability, economic growth, and public health and welfare.In some countries, such policies are framed as part of a just transition.However, they can have major influence on mitigative capacity, and hence can be seen as tools to broaden mitigation options, as illustrated by the Illustrative Mitigation Pathway 'Shifting Pathways' (medium evidence, medium agreement).There are practical options to shift development pathways in ways that advance mitigation and other sustainable development objectives, supporting political feasibility, increase resources to meet multiple goals, and reduce emissions (limited evidence, high agreement).Concrete examples assessed in this chapter include high employment and low emissions structural change, fiscal reforms for mitigation and social contract, combining housing policies to deliver both housing and transport mitigation, and change economic, social and spatial patterns of development of the agriculture sector provide the basis for sustained reductions in emissions from deforestation.These examples differ by context.Examples in other chapters include transformations in energy, urban, building, industrial, transport, and land-based systems, changes in behaviour and social practices, as well as transformational changes across whole economies and societies.Coordinated policy mixes would need to coordinate multiple actorsindividuals, groups and collectives, corporate actors, institutions and infrastructure actors -to deepen decarbonisation and shift pathways towards sustainability.Shifts in one country may spill over to other countries.Shifting development pathways can jointly support mitigation and adaptation.Some studies explore the risks of high complexity and potential delay attached to shifting development pathways.{4.3, 4.3.1,4.3.2,4.4.2,4.4.3,4.4.1.7-4.4.1.10,Figure 4.7, Cross-Chapter Box 5, 5.8, Box 6.2, 8.2, 8.3.1, 8.4, 9.8.1, 9.8.2, 10.4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 5, Cross-Chapter Box 7, Cross-Chapter Box 12} The literature identifies a broad set of enabling conditions that can both foster shifting development pathways and accelerated mitigation, along five categories (medium evidence, high agreement).Policy integration is a necessary component of shifting development pathways, addressing multiple objectives.To this aim, mobilising a range of policies is preferable to single policy instruments (robust evidence, high agreement).Governance for climate mitigation and shifting development pathways is enhanced when tailored to How can one shift development pathway and accelerate mitigation?The literature does not provide a complete handbook for shifting development pathways and accelerating mitigation.The literature does, however, shed light on some of the underlying dynamics.Shifting development pathways can be necessitated by the existence of pervasive obstacles that prove prohibitive to reaching mitigation and other development objectives (Section 4.2.7).Deliberate measures taken to facilitate the shifting of development pathways and accelerated mitigation involve putting in place key enabling conditions that help overcome those obstacles (Figure 4.6) -improving governance

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