Assessment of risks affecting the operational activities of the Amman bus rapid transit (BRT) system

Abstract

In the first decade of the 21st century, bus rapid transit (BRT) became a significant transportation method. However, implementing a BRT system in developing countries involves many risks associated with its operational activities, whether political, technical, occupational, or financial. Therefore, a corresponding risk assessment is required, which consists in identifying, classifying, and analysing all risks in any project at each phase of project development. Most studies show that risk evaluations in the early stages refer to planning and implementation. However, little research has been conducted on the operation phase to determine the importance of studying risks at this phase. The current study aims to analyse risks affecting the main operating activities of Amman BRT system in Jordan. Thus, the risks associated with the Amman BRT project are highlighted by reviewing previous studies, resulting in 45 risk factors classified into five main groups of Amman BRT operational activities, including 17 categories. A survey was carried out by distributing a questionnaire to 177 respondents; 122 were returned, and 115 were accepted for analysis. The collected data were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Through analysing the questionnaire, the probability of occurrence and the risk impacts were calculated, yielding the relative importance index for each risk. To validate the analysed risks, external validation was carried out by interviewing seven experts in Amman BRT system operation. The key results obtained indicated eight significant risks affecting the Amman BRT system that need to be considered: fuel price change; work-related stress conditions; violence and harassment at work; accidents in the workplace due to breaking traffic rules; a lack of supporting infrastructure (rainwater drainage, a lack of emergency exits on the bus route); corruption and bribery; the involvement of too many multi-level decision- makers; and contract problems between the operator company and the government, where their relative importance indexes ranging from 20.7 to 15.2. The study contributes to the knowledge of this region of the world on this subject. Specifically, the case of BRTs is rare, and knowing which risks are affecting the main operational activities is critical. For future studies, mitigating these risk factors associated with the Amman BRT system is recommended via proper management.

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