Articlegreen2024

Spending a windfall

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis Economic theories and models

Abstract

We study the effect of the discovery of precious metals in America from 1500 to 1810 on international trade. Around 1500, there was a simultaneous discovery of precious metals and new trading routes. We construct a counterfactual of new routes but no precious metals. The discovery of precious metals increased the stock of precious metals more than 10-fold. We show that Euro-Asian trade at its peak increased up to 20 times compared with the counterfactual. Our simulations match the observed price dynamics. We find that precious metals were at least as important as the new routes.

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References

2005Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections 1998ReORIENT 2009The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective 2000The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy 2001The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War 2002Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?n.d.Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?2000Inflation and Welfare

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