Simultaneous Simulation of Urban Shrinkage and Expansion Using Cellular Automaton and Maximum Information Entropy Models: Case Study of Urban Evolution in Wuhan Metropolitan Area

Qingsong He · Bo Wang · Yanchuan Mou · Ronghui Tan · Linzi Zheng

12 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Urban Planning and Development

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

No open-access location is known for this record yet.

Literature note Cite in a project Citation map

Urbanization and City Planning Land Use and Ecosystem Services Urban Design and Spatial Analysis

Abstract

During the past two decades discussions on urban shrinkage have been increasing in intensity, mainly due to the irresistible trends of migration, economic transformation, and the so-called “siphon effect” of large and mega cities. Yet, very few studies have tried to understand urban shrinkage from the perspective of local microscopic unit evolution. This study develops a novel model for simultaneous simulation of expansion and shrinkage (MSSES) of urban built-up areas. Starting from a microscopic basis, our MSSES can simulate both the processes and the states that lead to spatial expansion or shrinkage. A MaxEnt model is further used to investigate the driving factors of microspatial changes and compute the probabilities of shrinkage (or expansion) of urban built-up areas. Finally, it simulates the explicit layout of the spatial distribution of shrinkage (or expansion) patches with the help of a sorting cellular automata (CA) model. The validity of MSSES is verified using multisourced data from the Wuhan agglomeration, China. We show that (1) MSSES can more accurately simulate urban expansion or shrinkage than the currently widely used neighborhood-based Logistic-CA (NL-CA) and (2) MSSES has advantage in solving the commonly seen problem of “diffusion-coalescence,” especially for the simulation of outlying expansion. Against the context of the Wuhan metropolitan area, we also found that overall the shrinkage trend is slowing down significantly, presenting three types of shrinkage at city-scale: remote shrinkage, peripheral shrinkage, and international shrinkage. Our study has contributions to the body of knowledge as well as practical implications for urban management and improving the sustainable development of urban areas in both China and abroad.

Paper brief

Loading…

Cite this work

Citation unavailable for this work.

BibTeX RIS CSL-JSON

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Citations in this library

Citation map →

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 12 citations exist upstream.

References

1943Problems of Industrialisation of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe 2012Shrinking Cities: Urban Challenges of Globalization 2012Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: A Comparison of Transformation Patterns and Local Strategies 2020Built environment, urban vitality and social cohesion: Do vibrant neighborhoods foster strong communities?2018Shrinking cities in growing China: Did high speed rail further aggravate urban shrinkage?2012Actors and factors in land-use simulation: The challenge of urban shrinkage 2016Shrinking cities in a rapidly urbanizing China 1988Die Schrumpfende Stadt und die Stadtsoziologie

Cited by

2026Spatial analysis of urban shrinkage: a scoping review of methodological and analytical gaps 2026Learning from growth regions: Exploring optimal paths for shrinking built-up areas using machine learning and case-based reasoning

Explore the map →

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.

Imported from OpenAlex (CC0) — nothing here is generated.