Components of Temporal Variations in American Fertility

Abstract

Demographers are restive with the use of the humble measure as an index of fertility, because its variations reflect not only changes in fertility itself, in some deeper sense, but also changes in the age distribution of the population. The almost precise counterbalancing of movements of the period total fertility rate by movements of the age distribution factor has played a major role in dampening the outcome in number of births per annum. The only information in the cohort fertility tables bearing on the tempo of fertility is the time-distribution of fertility for each birth order. One naturally thinks first, on a question of the time pattern of reproduction, of nuptiality data, specifically the age at first marriage. The most likely context of fertility regulation is a state of imperfect planning. A higher risk of failure is translated on the one hand into a higher parity progression ratio and on the other into a shorter interbirth interval.

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