Development of Spatial Econometric Models for Estimating the Bicycle Sharing Trip Activity

Abstract

In developing countries, the implementation of bicycle-sharing program is in a nascent stage; this paper provides a preliminary understanding of bicycle-sharing trip activity introduced in Kerala, India. Fundamentally, framework is utilized to incorporate spatial interaction effects and estimate the bicycle-sharing trip activity using spatial econometric techniques. MYBYK is the associated bicycle rental company, with 67 stations in major locations at Cochin, Kalamasery, Choornikkarra, and Aluva cities in India. Socio-demographic information, bicycle sharing trip information, weather information, and built environment information have been collected in the study regions. Initially, spatiotemporal variation is analyzed to understand the bicycle-sharing trip activity. Then, spatial indicators are determined using Moran's I technique, and the study area's locational information is transmitted to the spatial weight matrix to illustrate the spatial neighborhood structure. Trip Production and Attraction models were developed to estimate bicycle sharing trip activity using spatial econometric techniques such as Spatial Autoregressive model, Spatially Lagged X model, Spatial Error Model, Spatial Durbin Error model, and Spatial Durbin Model. The models are evaluated, and appropriate model is found using Bayesian approach. The findings indicate that Spatial Durbin Model is effective to estimate the bicycle sharing trip activity, and its own and spillover effects are also addressed.

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