Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets

Abstract

Abstract The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO 2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5 °C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and robustness checks that increase confidence in them. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 °C is around 250 GtCO 2 as of January 2023, equal to around six years of current CO 2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2 °C the RCB is around 1,200 GtCO 2 . Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO 2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero CO 2 .

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