Abstract In conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to evaluate the desirability of a treatment or prevention regimen, the analyst combines information on the course of disease and treatment, the clinical effectiveness of the regimens, preferences regarding health outcomes, the costs of the intervention and its sequelae, and other aspects of the clinical problem. For many of these pieces of information, the analyst may have a very good sense of what the true values and relationships are, based on clinical trials and observational studies in the literature, or experience. For some aspects of the study, the level of certainty concerning the correct value or the form of the relationship may be very limited.
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