Global Deaths Associated with Population Aging — 1990–2019

Ruotong Li · Xunjie Cheng · Yang Yang · David C. Schwebel · Peishan Ning · Li Li +3 more

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Healthcare Systems and Public Health Global Health and Epidemiology

Abstract

Introduction: Published global and country-specific deaths associated with population aging are based on decomposition methods that have significant limitations. Methods: A new decomposition method was developed and its performance was compared with two frequently used methods. The new method was employed to calculate global deaths associated with population aging between 1990 and 2019, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Results: Compared to the two frequently-used existing methods, the new decomposition method generated results that are more consistent with logical expectations. Using the new method, the number of global deaths associated with population aging between 1990 and 2019 was 23.3 million. Upper middle-income countries accounted for 43% of global deaths related to population aging. The most deaths associated with population aging occurred from three types of disease: ischemic heart disease (5.0 million), stroke (3.8 million), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.2 million). China, India, Japan, the United States of America, and Brazil had the largest number of deaths related to population aging. Loss related to population aging was completely or partially counteracted by the reduction in mortality in 195 of the 200 countries and territories experiencing population aging (97.5%). Conclusions: The new decomposition method achieves more justifiable results associated with population aging than existing methods. Globally, population aging was associated with a substantial increase of deaths between 1990 and 2019, but it was totally or partially offset by the reduction in mortality in 97.5% of countries and territories.

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References

2016Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2020Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 2019Measuring population ageing: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2020Population ageing and mortality during 1990–2017: A global decomposition analysis 2019A new method to attribute differences in total deaths between groups to population size, age structure and age-specific mortality rate 2005[Quantitative analysis of factors affected mortality trend in Chinese, 2002].

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